After the continuous rise, into November, aluminum prices to high shock, the Shanghai aluminum index range of 13000 yuan ~14500 yuan / ton. Later, the market expects the U.S. interest rate hike in December, boosted by the U.S. dollar index strong, 100 points on the mark and hit a new high in recent years, aluminum prices have been suppressed for a long time. But if the Federal Reserve in December is expected to increase interest rates, or after the boot will be bad, turned out to be good. China's steady economic recovery, the performance of major areas such as downstream car brisk, high prices after the shock of aluminum is likely to continue to choose to break through.

Fed interest rate hike is approaching

Recent data show a steady recovery in the U.S. economy. Employment, the United States in October, the number of new non-agricultural employment of 161 thousand people, slightly less than expected. But salary growth is better than expected, and unemployment is down. In a beautiful U. S. economic data and Fed officials issued a hawkish speech, the federal funds rate futures hinted that the Fed's interest rate hike rate rose to 94% in December. Beijing time at 3 in the morning on November 24th, the Federal Reserve announced November minutes of the meeting. Most officials think the labor market is idle and interest rates should come relatively fast.

The minutes from the Federal Reserve in November the economic data, the Fed is a high probability event in December to raise interest rates, the market is gradually entering the speculation began to heat up to the apex of the stage, we can from the dollar index exceeded 100 mark to see. Therefore, if the fed in December really increase interest rates, then the boot or landing will be turned out to be good, and bring a boost to commodities.

Steady recovery brings the warm atmosphere for aluminum China economy

Judging by recent national economic data, overall stability remains. In the monetary policy and fiscal policy underpinning macroeconomic conditions, the more obvious signs of stabilizing. From October to 2016, electricity consumption in the whole society increased, an increase of 4.8%; from 1 to October, the above scale industrial added value grew by 6% compared with the same period of last year; 1. As the leading indicators of PMI data in recent months, there has been a continuous pick-up trend, recently released October official PMI index was 51.2, a two-year high. Real estate, the overall growth is still steady. 1 to October, investment in real estate development amounted to 83975 yuan, representing an increase of 6.6%, the growth rate of 1 to 0.8% in September. Overall, the policy underpinning the conditions, the domestic economy will continue to run smoothly.

Supply and demand balance is tight, support aluminum prices rise

Supply side, China's National Bureau of statistics data show that China's original aluminum production in October was 2 million 730 thousand tons, an increase of 1.1%, the first 10 months of China's original aluminum production totaled 26 million 180 thousand tons, representing a decrease of 1.1% over the same period in 2015. The demand side, according to Zhuo monitoring data show that from 1 to October, China automotive aluminum volume totaled 2 million 798 thousand tons, an increase of 13.9%, the growth rate increased slightly compared to September, while the growth rate over the same period in 2015 increased by nearly 14 percentage points in 2015 October is the automotive aluminum growth from negative to positive watershed. From 2016 to October, the total output of automobile was 20 million 887 thousand vehicles, an increase of 12.7% compared with the same period of last year, or 1.

Inventory, Shanghai nonferrous network data show that in November 21st, 5 national social aluminum inventories to 264 thousand tons, compared to November 14th when the week to reduce the 15 thousand tons of aluminum ingots; Xinjiang automotive and broke the tension capacity, coupled with lower stocking still, aluminum fell again inventory. Jiangsu Zhejiang Shanghai trader to Shandong to organize transportation procurement, but Shandong area prices rise, aluminum control shipments, the entire supply tensions in the aluminum prices rebounded sharply. Later, the cold wave struck, affect the arrival, the market worried about the quantity and period of follow-up, the aluminum shot up all the way, holding the goods disc with a strong willingness to shill. The overall transaction focused on traders, traders active show that the latter spot price increases still exist.

China's steady economic operation to bring the bottom support for aluminum prices, supply and demand side balance is tight or will boost the aluminum price, after the end of the shock, choose to make a breakthrough.