In 2016, the nationwide capacity cyclone led to soaring prices for black goods, led by coal. To 2017, coal and steel production capacity of reduction, nonferrous metals, cement and other backward production capacity is also included, which has long been called the label of excess capacity of electrolytic aluminum industry, is the priority among priorities to capacity this year.

Reporters learned that, in 2016, due to factors such as cost increases, aluminum prices increased by more than 40%, the market capacity expansion unprecedented enthusiasm. Industry analysts believe that in 2017, the cost pull up, to the dual role of production capacity, the aluminum market outlook is still room for improvement.

Capacity soared last year

In the first 11 months of 2016, the price of aluminium has been steadily increasing. Zhuo analyst Jiao Jie said that in January 1, 2016, the domestic aluminum spot price in 10950 yuan / ton, in November 14th, the price of aluminum has shot up to 15380 yuan / ton. Compared to February 3rd's annual minimum price of 10500 yuan / ton, 2016 spot aluminum prices rose by 46.48%. Even in December, aluminum prices fell, and by December, 31 Daily reported 12910 yuan / ton price, the annual increase of 17.89%. Allegedly, due to the early spring festival in 2017, aluminum prices are currently low, the price of 13000 yuan / ton in the vicinity.

The strong trend of aluminium prices in 2016 was mainly due to rising costs." Business Analyst Liu Meili told reporters that the cost of electrolytic aluminum production mainly concentrated in alumina and electricity, and the process of generating coal is an important raw material. 2016 coal production capacity, so that steam coal prices rose from more than 200 yuan per ton at the beginning to five hundred or six hundred yuan at the end of the year, alumina prices from around 1500 yuan per ton at the beginning, rose to more than 3000 yuan per ton today. In addition, the price of rail freight rose in 2016, adding to the cost of transportation of aluminum products.

In addition to the cost factors, the electrolytic aluminum industry in 2016 also showed a significant downward movement in inventory." Jiao Jie added, inventory in electrolytic aluminum spot market in millions of tons, to the end of the year when there are low stocks 60000 tons. But after 2016 March, the country's inventory dropped to less than 500 thousand tons, and has not been up since. An obvious case is that at the end of 2015 to early 2016, many smelters saw profits increase advantage to extend the industrial chain, a part of the aluminum electrolysis enterprises began in the surrounding new downstream production equipment, the production of aluminum liquid directly into the aluminum rod, aluminum rod to form sales to the downstream store up to the spot the goods market is obviously reduced, until the current stock market remains low.

Under the influence of all kinds of factors, the rising price of aluminum highlights the advantages, depressed for a long time, the producers finally see the dawn of profits, have opened production.

Reporters learned from the industry sources, in 2015, aluminum prices have dropped sharply, the lowest reached 9710 yuan / ton. That time, the domestic 6 large aluminum enterprises to take the lead in limiting production value, so that by the end of 2015, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is low. Good market in 2016, so that many capacity production increased substantially. Statistics show that by the end of 2015, the capacity of the domestic electrolytic aluminum production enterprises was 38 million 785 thousand tons, and the production capacity was 30 million 156 thousand tons. But by the end of 2016, the capacity would have reached 43 million 698 thousand tons and the production capacity would have reached 36 million 739 thousand tons. During the past year, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity has increased by 4 million 913 thousand tons, and the operation capacity has increased by 6 million 583 thousand tons. Compared to previous years, the growth rate of capacity production in 2016 was considerable.

Electrolytic aluminium removal capacity is revisited

2017 was called "the year of storming out of production capacity". In December 21, 2016 the "investment projects of the State Council issued the government approved the" catalogue published, iron and steel, coal, shipping, glass, aluminum and cement were classified as serious excess capacity in the industry, requiring all localities and departments shall not in any way for the record and to support new capacity projects, and work together to promote the serious excess capacity to resolve.

Lunar New Year is the authority of the media reported that the national development and Reform Commission announced, has been with the Ministry of industry and other five ministries jointly issued a notice to resolutely curb illegal production capacity of coal and steel industry, clear 2017 will further promote the supply side reform and three to drop a ", in addition to coal and steel industry, other industries backward production capacity will also enter the capacity to list. This backward production capacity, electrolytic aluminum bear the brunt.

The day before the release of the "Beijing Tianjin and surrounding areas in 2017 air pollution prevention and control plan" of the draft, Hebei, Shandong, Henan and Shanxi 4 provinces involved in electrolytic aluminum production capacity of enterprises will be cut 30%. The 4 provinces involved in the operation of the total capacity of more than 11 million tons.

Aluminum prices are still optimistic about the market outlook

It is reported that, in addition to Shandong, Wei bridge, China Aluminum and other large enterprises, the majority of electrolytic aluminum enterprises are still based on the production of traditional aluminum ingots, affected by fluctuations in raw material prices. In the capacity tide, there will be more enterprises to upgrade production of special new materials, so as to obtain higher value-added products.

CICC research report believes that the fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum industry continues to improve. At present, the market is expected in 2017, the supply side reform will be extended to colored excess, relatively serious electrolytic aluminum and alumina plate, if the implementation of the production capacity policy, prices are expected to rise significantly. 2017 new electrolytic aluminum production capacity control in about 3 million tons, 5 million tons less than the market expected, and shut production to resume production schedule may be lower than expected. Demand is still maintained 6% to 7% growth, industry fundamentals continue to improve, capacity utilization is expected to rise to 84%, prices still have room to rise.

兴业证券研报也称，2016年，电解铝盈利好转，大量产能复产投产，2017年待投产的产能更是高达854万吨，产能压力巨大。1月份，国家发改委、国务院国资委表示供给侧改革将会扩展至电解铝等其他产能过剩行业，工信部提出将严控电解铝产能。另外，在特朗普要求美国制造业回归、美国利益优先的理念下，中国铝材出口贸易摩擦几率加大，引发政府关注。2017年加大电解铝调控力度成大概率事件，行业走势值得期待。